In 2024, Ecuador’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a decrease of 2.0%. This contraction was driven by household consumption, which decreased by 1.3%, government spending, which contracted by 1.2%, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which decreased by 3.8%. Exports contributed positively to GDP with annual growth of 1.8%, which helped to partially mitigate the contraction. On the other hand, imports grew by 1.7%.
At the industry level, 5 of the 20 sectors analyzed showed positive annual growth:
- Agriculture, livestock, and forestry: 3.1%
- Financial and insurance activities: 1.3%
- Real estate activities: 1.3%
- Health and social assistance: 0.3%
- Food manufacturing: 0.2%
It is important to mention that the economy’s performance in 2024 was characterized by challenges generated by endogenous and exogenous factors that affected its macroeconomic performance. Among the most determining factors are: the security situation, the progressive closure of the oil wells in Block 43-ITT, political uncertainty ahead of the 2025 electoral process, and the most severe drought in the last 60 years. In fact, according to estimates made by the Central Bank of Ecuador, losses due to power outages resulting from the drought reached USD 1.916 billion, which represented an impact of -1.4% on GDP. The three sectors most affected by the power outages were: trade with losses of USD -763.1 million, manufacturing with USD -380.2 million, and services with USD -374.1 million.
Year-on-year, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw a 0.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2023, mainly due to the performance of the GFCF (-2.6%), government spending (-0.8%), and imports (3.7%). Meanwhile, exports posted year-on-year growth of 3.5%, and household consumption increased by 0.2%.
Additionally, the Ecuadorian economy registered a slight recovery in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, with growth of 1.3%, driven primarily by the strong performance of the GFCF (3.0%), exports (2.6%), and household consumption (1.5%). Imports also reported growth of 3.1%.
Regarding the economic outlook for 2025, the Central Bank of Ecuador projects a recovery of the Ecuadorian economy, with an estimated growth of 2.8%, supported by:
- A recovery in household consumption, driven by an improvement in credit and the labor market.
- Strong performance of non-oil exports, especially non-traditional products and the agricultural sector.
- Increased public and private investment, supported by greater macroeconomic stability and the approval of structural reforms.
However, the Ecuadorian economy faces significant challenges this year, such as security and the fiscal situation, as well as external shocks, including a sharp drop in oil prices amid the risk of a global recession due to the imposition of new tariffs.
Finally, in line with the policy for the publication and dissemination of national accounts, we remind you that the current publication corresponds to preliminary figures for 2024. The provisional and final figures for the annual national accounts for 2024 will be published in December 2025 and December 2026, respectively.
Publication links:
National Accounts:
Macroeconomic Forecasts:
https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/informacioneconomica/SectorReal/ix_PrevEcon.html
