In 2023, Ecuador's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.4%[1], lower than the 6.2% growth achieved in 2022. This growth was driven by the dynamism of government expedinture, which increased by 3.7%; exports by 2.3%; household consumption at 1.4%; and, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at 0.5%.
At the industry level, 13 of the 20 sectors presented positive performance, among which the following stand out:
- Electricity and water supply by 7.1%;
- Fishing and aquaculture by 5.9%;
- Public administration at 5.2%;
- Agriculture, livestock and forestry by 4.9%; and,
- Transportation and storage by 4.8%.
On the other hand, in the fourth quarter of 2023, GDP presented an interannual variation of -0.7%, due to decreases in the following components of GDP: household consumption (-0.5%); GFCF (-5.2%) and exports (-7.4%).
During the last quarter of 2023, 11 of the 20 industries presented interannual decreases, including:
- Construction at -13.6%;
- Exploitation of mines and quarries at -11.2%;
- Art, entertainment and other service activities at -8.5%;
- Manufacturing of non-food products at -5.4%; and,
- Financial and insurance activities at -4.1%.
In quarterly terms, GDP decreased by 2.4% compared to the third quarter of 2023, due to contractions in household consumption by -1.8%, GFCF by -3.7%, and government expenditure at -0.3%, as well as exports at -7.4%; while, imports recorded a growth of 3.9%.
Finally, the Central Bank of Ecuador has estimated the growth projection for the year 2024 at 1.0%. This forecast considers lower growth rates in household consumption (0.7%) and government expenditure (1.1%), and a recovery in exports (4.2%) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1.3%).
More information in the following links:
Quarterly National Accounts: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/informacioneconomica/cuentasnacionales/ix_cuentasnacionalestrimestrales.html#
Macroeconomic forecast:
https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Estadisticas/SectorReal/Previsiones/PIB/PrevMacro.xlsx
[1] The Central Bank of Ecuador publishes three versions of the Annual National Accounts figures: preliminary, provisional and definitive. The figures presented in this statement correspond to the preliminary version, which were estimated based on the quarterly accounts and current indicators.