The updated Macroeconomic Programming report anticipates stronger momentum in consumption, investment, and exports. The Central Bank of Ecuador also incorporated scenarios to assess the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon on the economy.
The Ecuadorian economy would grow 2.7% in 2026, according to the updated Macroeconomic Programming report from the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE). The new forecast represents an upward revision from the 2.5% growth estimated in April 2026. The update incorporates the most recent economic information and the evolution of the main domestic and external factors influencing productive activity. For the 2027–2030 period, average growth of 2.5% is projected, driven mainly by non-oil activities, household consumption, investment, and exports.
Consumption and investment would drive growth
For 2026, household consumption would increase 3.3%, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation would grow 5.8%. Exports of goods and services, for their part, would expand 3.8%.
In the external sector, the current account would close 2026 with an estimated surplus of USD 4,587 million. Remittances would also continue contributing income to the economy and supporting household consumption.
In the monetary and financial area, credit to the private sector would grow 10.9% and deposits 11.5%. Average annual inflation would stand at 2.1%, while International Reserves would reach approximately USD 11,239 million by the end of 2026.
The BCE analyzes possible effects related to the El Niño phenomenon
As part of this update, the BCE incorporated an exercise to assess the possible effects of the El Niño phenomenon on the Ecuadorian economy. The analysis considers two scenarios, moderate and strong, whose greatest impacts could be concentrated in 2027 due to possible effects on production, exports, and prices.
Compared to the baseline scenario, a moderate event could reduce 2027 economic growth by 0.5 percentage points, while a strong event could subtract 1.4 percentage points. These scenarios do not constitute a prediction of whether or how intensely the phenomenon will occur, but rather a technical exercise that makes it possible to estimate the economy’s sensitivity to different levels of climate impact.
The Macroeconomic Programming report makes it possible to project the evolution of the main economic variables and, at the same time, analyze risks and alternative scenarios that could affect the country’s performance. The September 2026 update reflects a favorable outlook for the Ecuadorian economy, with a growth forecast higher than previously estimated. At the same time, it incorporates external, financial, geopolitical, and climate-related risk factors that could alter the projected trajectory.
With this revision of economic growth projections for the 2026–2030 period, the BCE complies with the provisions of Article 36 of the Organic Monetary and Financial Code (COMF), amended on October 13, 2025, as well as with the requirements of the Organic Code of Planning and Public Finance (COPLAFIP) and its Regulations.
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Strategic Communications Sub-Directorate – Directorate of Economic Studies and Statistics
